Ukrainian Chaos

Hey folks! My sincerest apologies for taking so long to update. Remember how I said I love the Olympics? Well, between that, working, getting sick, and just general everyday necessities in life (eating, seeing Shakespearean plays, cleaning out the litter box, etc), I found myself with little time nor energy to spend on the blog. As a result, I’m probably going to limit my standard updates to twice a week, most likely Monday and Friday, with the chance of other updates if the feeling strikes, or if major news stories arise.

Speaking of major news stories…..UKRAINIAN CHAOS!

                                                                                                              Wikipedia          Yep, that’s a bit chaotic.

You may recall a couple of weeks ago I broke down the issues surrounding the protests in Ukraine. In case you forgot, or aren’t willing to click on that link, here’s the ‘411’ as the kids say (…kids don’t actually say this, do they?):

–          Ukraine is at the crossroads between Europe and Russia.

–          Folks in western Ukraine want closer ties with Europe and more freedom, while folks in the east want closer ties with Russia and are willing to forgo freedom in exchange for stability.

–          Back in November, Ukraine was supposed to sign a deal calling for closer relations with the European Union. At the last minute, President Viktor Yanukovych (who is a big fan of Mother Russia), backed out and sought closer relations with Russia.

–          Protests happened, barricades were thrown up, people were killed…..

                                                                                                             Telegraph      The Ukrainian barricades had a lot less singing.

And now it would seem that the proverbial fecal matter has hit the oscillating blade. (Got to keep it clean…kids may read this). On February 18^th, amnesty was to be granted to the protesters, and the Parliament of Ukraine was to discuss bringing back the more liberal 2004 Constitution of Ukraine. However, when protesters refused to disperse from the streets, police opened fire. Members of the ‘titushky’, who are little more than government-paid thugs, began attacking the protesters as well, including from the roofs of buildings with sniper rifles. Over the next two days fighting raged back and forth throughout Kiev, with columns of riot police and ‘titushky’ repeatedly attacking the barricades. The protesters, sealing themselves in Independence Square behind a wall of burning tires, fought back with whatever they had, from their own personal weapons to hastily prepared Molotov cocktails to the very cobblestones of the square itself. In those two days, the BBC is reporting at least 77 deaths, with hundreds wounded. Protests spread throughout much of western Ukraine in solidarity with the Kiev protesters.

                                                                             Christian Science Monitor          The Molotov cocktail….perhaps the least popular party cocktail.

On Friday, the 21^st, it seemed that peace might be restored. Yanukovych signed a compromise with the leaders of the opposition, including the building of a national unity government made up of representatives from both sides, a reduction in presidential powers, and early elections for president, to be held before the end of the year.

However, it seemed that what was acceptable to the opposition leaders was not acceptable to the demonstrators on the square. They had seen too many of their comrades die and bleed, and could not stomach the thought of Yanukovych remaining in office for another year, allowing him time to rebuild and remain. The protesters moved to occupy several government buildings, and refused to vacate the square.

It is at this point that events began spiraling almost beyond comprehension. Parliamentarians from the president’s body began defecting to the opposition. Police units from other cities went to the protesters side. Several government ministers resigned…others have disappeared, supposedly fleeing to Russia or Belarus. Yanukovych himself fled the capital to the eastern city of Kharkiv. Protesters swarmed into his now abandoned offices and extravagant country estate, complete with private zoo, monogrammed golden golf clubs, and a replica floating galleon. The speaker of the parliament resigned, and the remaining deputies moved to remove Yanukovych from power and hold early elections on May 25. They also moved to release from prison former prime minister (and apparent hair stylist for Princess Leia) Yulia Tymoshenko, who had been sentenced to seven years in prison in 2011 for misuse of power, but most Ukrainians believe was removed simply because she was a challenge to Yanukovych.

                                                                                               The Independent    Three years in prison, now in a wheelchair, but still rocking that hair braid crown.

Which brings us to the present. Economist and writer Oleksander Turchynov, and a close associate of Tymoshenko, has been named as interim president. At least, that’s the case in the western part of Ukraine. In the east, Yanukovych has claimed that he is the current legitimate president (although he has not been seen in public since Saturday). Russian-speaking deputies from the south and east have met in Kharkiv, stating that they are responsible for protecting “constitutional order in their territory”. Some of the eastern delegates have now called for the country to be re-organized as a collection of semi-organized autonomous regions. More extreme deputies have openly called for the secession of the Russian-speaking regions. In response, the Kiev parliament voted to revoke the ‘protected language’ status that had been given to the Russian language.

Needless to say, the situation is extremely tense at the moment. The vast majority of Ukrainians, both eastern and western, do not wish to see the country divided. Indeed, that proposal is actually least attractive to the democratic protesters in the west. As much as western Ukrainians may think they may be better off without their Russian-speaking countrymen, the east actually holds most of the country’s resources and industrial infrastructure. There is legitimate concern that, in the case of a division, western Ukraine may lack the resources necessary to establish themselves as a sovereign state.

                                                                                                                 BBC News    Perhaps the borders of two new countries forming?

At this point, the possibility of civil war is very real. Of even more concern…how will Russia react? Russian President Vladimir Putin has campaigned very hard to rebuild not only Russian pride, but also Russian power. This has been seen most prominent with heavy Russian investment in the former Soviet states of Belarus and many of the ‘stans’ in Central Asia….as well as Ukraine. And let’s not forget about the Russian Naval Base at Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula. Ever since the breakup of the USSR, the Crimea has been one of the most pro-Russian areas outside of Russia (except for maybe the Transnistria region of Moldova…but that’s for another post). Sevastopol is the main port for the Black Sea Fleet, and the largest constantly ice-free port for the Russian Navy. In 2010, the Ukrainian Parliament, (then stuffed with Yanukovych allies) narrowly voted to extend the lease on the base to Russia out until 2047. If the new government in Kiev seeks to alter that arrangement, this situation will get very ugly, very fast.

                                                                                                      The Times (UK)     “How do you take your Ukrainian, little Misha…..Medium-rare?”

All of this needs to be kept in mind in the coming weeks, as the people of Ukraine strive to establish a functioning, representative government. Tymoshenko, while most likely unjustly imprisoned and currently enjoying sympathy, does not promote a positive image in the minds of most Ukrainians. Many of the opposition leaders do not have the expertise to lead a country, and indeed, many have publicly spoken that they really have no interest in leading the country. The opposition is composed of many different groups, from democratic to far-right nationalists. With the removal of Yanukovych, will these groups be able to continue to work together? Will Yanukovych call on the support of Putin, perhaps even as far as military intervention? And what of the West? The European Union and the United States sought to impose economic and travel sanctions against many of the leaders of Ukraine. In the face of possible Russian intervention, how far would they be willing to go in order to protect the new government in Kiev?

The Winter Olympics of Our Discontent

I had planned to write this post in a week or two, closer to the actual start date of the Sochi Winter Olympics. However, events are moving quickly, and I want folks to have an understanding of what’s going on, and what may happen as we move closer to the Olympics.

I love the Olympics. I love the idea, the passion, the competition. I love seeing the athletes march in under their flags. I love seeing sports that you don’t usually see. I. LOVE. CURLING! (It’s like chess on ice!)

“SLIDE TO THE LEFT, YOU STUPID STONE!!”                                                                     via Wikimedia Commons

I love the exasperated looks my wife gives me as I make comments about the politics of a country involved in the Games. It is my belief that the Olympics are one of the best things that the Greeks have ever gifted to the rest of the world, standing on equal ground with democracy and souvlaki.

But this year is different. This year I truly fear for the Games, the athletes, and the spectators. Not because of the anti-homosexual laws that have been passed in Russia, nor the environmental damage done to the region. Not because they’re holding the Olympics in a subtropical city that’s known better as the Riviera of Russia rather than it’s skiing. Nor do I fear that Vladimir Putin is turning the Games for his own political advantage to cement Russia’s return to power. (Time for my favorite music video of all time!).

I fear that this will be the year when violence returns to the Games. As a major international event drawing persons, officials, and heads of state from around the globe, the Olympics have always been a target for attack. Knowing that, it’s actually quite shocking that terrorism has only found its way to the Games twice: the massacre of Israeli athletes by Palestinian terrorists in Munich in 1972, and the Centennial Olympic Park bombing Atlanta in 1996 by radical Christian terrorist Eric Rudolph.

Unfortunately, I’ve had this feeling for years, ever since the Olympics were awarded to Russia in 2007. Who do I suspect might strike at the Games? Of course, al-Qaeda and its affiliates is always a possibility. Unpredictable “lone wolf” terrorists, like Randolph, motivated by innumerable reasons, are always a threat. But the threat that I fear comes from the location of the Games itself.

Here is Sochi and the region of the northern Caucasus Mountains.

Sochi’s to the left of all of the angry sounding phonics                                                                                                                                                   via Wikimedia Commons

The peoples of the Caucasus have always been rebellious, ever since the Russian conquest of the region in the 19^th Century. After the collapse of the Russian Empire and descent into civil war, the people of the region attempted to secede from Bolshevik rule and establish the romantically named “Republic of the Mountaineers.” Their freedom lasted for three years, and then they were forcibly re-incorporated into the Soviet Union. 

Fast forward seventy years. The Soviet Union collapsed, and fifteen new countries were formed. (You remember all of those ‘stans’ you had to learn in geography class? You’re welcome). However, other regions of Russia wanted to breakaway as well. Many of these movements were found in the Russian republics of the Caucasus. Now for most people, when they hear the word ‘republic’, they think of an independent country. In Russia however, a republic is an area set aside for an ethnic minority. The folks in the Caucasus are not your stereotypical Russian, but are of a host of different ethnicities, and also predominately Muslim. Several of these regions sought independence in the 1990s. The region of Chechnya was most successful, maintaining de facto independence for roughly three years. However, that all ended when former KGB agent, then-Prime Minister, soon-to-be President, then-Prime Minister, and now-President-Again Vladimir Putin decided to jump on the territory with both feet.

“Like the sexy, Chechnya is also not                 authorized to leave.”                                                                                 via Flickr/Jedimentat44

The Chechen War, known for its brutality, resulted in an estimated 74,000 deaths, nearly 50,000 of them civilian. Its brutality was not just a result of a government wishing to re-establish control, but also one of religious hatred, as Orthodox Russians battled Muslim Chechens. As so frequently has happened in conflicts where Muslims found themselves invaded by a non-Muslim force, numerous foreign volunteers sought to engage in jihad and repel the ‘infidel’ invaders. Young Muslim men, became radicalized in the mountains of Chechnya, just as they had been radicalized in the mountains of Afghanistan and the deserts of Iraq.

After the quick defeat of their regular forces, many Chechens and their foreign allies resorted to guerilla warfare, and then devolving to terrorist attacks against civilian targets, perhaps most famously the 2002 Moscow theater attack that killed 133, and the 2004 Beslan school siege that killed 385, many of them children. Violence has also extended to the neighboring Russian republics of Dagestan and Ingushetia. A unique aspect of the Chechen conflict has been the emergence of female suicide bombers, known as the “Black Widows” since many of them lost husbands or other relatives in the Chechen War.

From Russia with….an AK.                                                                                               via Institute for the Study of Violent Groups

As I write, one of the more prominent Islamist groups in the Caucasus has promised a “present” for the Olympics. In the past four months, three suicide bomb attacks, including two Black Widows, have killed nearly 40 people in the city of Volgograd. Considering the proximity, I can’t help but theorize that these could have been “practice runs” for an attack on the Sochi games. Finally, this week news broke that Russian security forces are looking for three female suspects in the Sochi area who may have connection to Islamist terrorist groups. The U.S. has promised to place two warships in the Black Sea, in case it proves necessary to evacuate American citizens.

One other note of concern regarding location. The city of Sochi is only about 20 miles from the former border of Georgia. (The country of Georgia, not the peach-loving U.S. state). I say ‘former’ border because in 2008, on the eve of the Beijing Olympics (Irony!) Russia invaded Georgia in a weeklong conflict, resulting in Russia breaking off two regions of Georgia and declaring them independent countries.

There’s Abkhazia….close enough to bobsleigh to Sochi.                                                                                                                                                  via Wikimedia Commons

 Only about five countries actually recognize the sovereignty of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but Russia military forces in those regions ensure that they remain free of Georgian rule. And this week, Russia has apparently moved the border of Abkhazia back an additional seven miles, claiming a temporary security zone. Obviously, Georgia is quite upset over this. I’m not saying Georgia will resort to war over this (Since it didn’t go well for them last time), but don’t expect a lot of cheering when the Georgians march into the Olympic Stadium.

I do hope that my predictions don’t pan out. I pray for a peaceful Games. But considering the location, history, and current geo-political status of the countries and peoples involved….I fear this coming February.

Pray and hope for peace.                                                                                                                                          via Wikimedia Commons